miércoles, 8 de noviembre de 2017

What on earth is going on in Catalonia? (I)

I do not recall which thinker once said “Blessed are the countries whose history is boring”, but it seems to me he was right. Painfully right, even. Unfortunately, I live in a country with a very entertaining history.

For the last two months already, Spain has been in the international news, and not in a nice way, due to the woes that have befallen upon one of its most important regions, Catalonia.

Let's begin with a very brief history lesson: what we now call Spain (and Portugal) was part of the Western Roman provinces which fell to the barbarian invasions in the early fifth century AD. After roughly three hundred years of Visigoth rule, Muslim invaders from Northern Africa conquered most of what is now Spain and ruled it for hundreds of years (the further South you go, the longer Muslim dominion lasted).

Different Christian kingdoms grew in what is now Northern Spain and pushed down South in a movement called “the Reconquering” (Reconquista), which only finished in 1492 with the conquest of Granada, the last Muslim kingdom by Isabel and Ferdinand, “the Catholic Kings”.

Resultado de imagen de alhambra foto
(The Alhambra, the palace of the Muslim Kings in Granada)

Isabel and Ferdinand were rulers of the two most important Christian kingdoms: Castile and Aragon, which were temporarily joined by their marital union. However, due to the way they married their children with different European monarchs, and even more due to a series of quite coincidental deaths, everything ended with their grandson, Charles I of Spain, as king not only of all the different Spanish kingdoms, but of the Netherlands, half of Italy, Austria, and emperor of the Holy Roman Empire.

Charles I’s descendants were “kings of Spain” and regarded as such by the rest of Europe, but “Spain” between 1500-1700 was a country still made up of the different medieval kingdoms of yore (again, namely Castile and Aragon) each with their “Parliaments” (Cortes), with the king being, if not the only common bond, the most important by far. To make things more complicated, the Crown of Aragon was a conjunction of different territories, each with its own Cortes. Catalonia was one of these territories.

Spain kings' aspirations to universal (and Catholic) dominion, financed by the gold of newly discovered America, embroiled the country in a series of European wars against England, France, the Ottoman Empire, and the protestant feudal lords of Germany, which went more or less well during the sixteenth century and increasingly worse during the seventeenth century.

The American gold was not enough to pay for the constant wars and the Spanish kings desperately tried to find new sources of revenue and soldiers (Castile had withstood the majority of the burden during the sixteenth century). One of the main targets of the King´s ministers (including the most famous one, the Count-Duke of Olivares) was the Crown of Aragon, which reacted in strong opposition to new taxes and levies. The Catalonian Cortes in particular, were adamant in their refusal to pay.
Resultado de imagen de el conde duque de olivares foto
(The Count-Duke of Olivares, by Velazquez)

A new war between France and Spain began in 1635. The Spanish army moved to defend Catalonia, but the lack of barracks and of adequate feeding for the troops provoked increasing abuses from the Spanish army and pent-up anger, especially in the rural areas.

Finally, a peasant uprising in 1640 ended up with the Catalonian institutions accepting the French king as its sovereign (after a very brief Catalan Republic). French domination was, however, worse than the presence of the Spanish army had been and Catalonian institutions accepted the Spanish king again in 1652.

On 1700 the Spanish king Charles II died childless and in his last will designated Philip of Anjou, the grandson of the King of France (Louis XIV, the Sun King) as legitimate heir. King Philip V swore over the Constitutions of the different Spanish kingdoms, but several European nations (England and the Netherlands in particular) became extremely scared at the prospect of a France-Spain union and launched a European war (the war of Spanish Succession), trying to crown the brother of the Austrian emperor (Archduke Charles) as king of Spain.

Resultado de imagen de felipe v archiduque carlos imagenes
(Philip V and the Archduke Charles)

The kingdom of Castile supported Philip, but the Crown of Aragon (wary of Philip V trying to import absolutist tendencies from France) supported Charles. After more than a decade of European warfare, King Philip V was accepted by the European countries as King of Spain, but at the cost of the loss of absolutely all Spanish European possessions. Philip punished the kingdoms of the Crown of Aragon for taking the side of his enemies with the suppression of its “Cortes” and attempted to rule as an absolute monarch, in the mold of his grandfather as king of what now was “Spain”.

The creation of the notion of a “Spanish nation” was greatly helped by the increasing cohesion and prosperity of the country during the eighteenth century, and even more by an extremely disruptive event: the Napoleonic invasion of Spain in 1808, which unified the Spanish people in repulse of a common enemy (interestingly enough, the two most important events of the war were the sieges of Zaragoza and Girona, two cities belonging to the old Crown of Aragon).

However, while other European nations such as Great Britain and France gained a great impulse throughout the nineteenth century due to its imperial expansion and general prosperity, and yet other countries like Germany and Italy managed to unify during the same era, the Spanish nineteenth century began with the disastrous loss of most of the colonial empire, was punctuated by several civil wars and military coups throughout the century and ended with a humiliating defeat against the United States and the loss of the final colonies in 1898.

These series of events generated two focus of unrest in Northern Spain: the Basque country, which took the losing side in the dynastic civil wars of the nineteenth century, and Catalonia, both of which began to demand more self-government at the end of that century, thinking that maybe it would be better to detach from such a failed country. Not coincidentally, both were regions in which a different language, other than Spanish, was also spoken.

The beginning of the twentieth century was a time of increasing turmoil in Spain, culminating in a military dictatorship in 1923, the downfall of the monarchy and the proclamation of a Republic in 1931 and, finally, a failed coup d’ Etat in 1936, which led to a horrific Civil War, which lasted three years and remains the most written about subject by world historians.

As a result of the war, hundreds of thousands died and fled the country. General Franco ruled the country until 1975, with two very well defined periods: 1939-1957, years in which Spain was extremely poor and internationally isolated, and 1957-1975, a period in which Spain had the second fastest growing economy in the world, only after Japan, once Franco was convinced by a bunch of economists that Spain had to open itself to the world by using the only real raw material it had: sunny weather.

The death of Franco led to the restoration of the Monarchy, and to what can only be defined as the most successful period in the history of Spain: the “Transition to Democracy” (transición a la democracia), five magical years in which King John Charles I and particularly his Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez managed to transform a dictatorship into a democratic country, through a series of extremely bold reforms (legalization of the Spanish Communist Party and trade unions, free elections, amnesty for the crimes of the Civil War, approval of a democratic Constitution and of self-government for the Spanish regions), and surviving another botched coup d' Etat in 1981.

Resultado de imagen de ADOLFO SUAREZ FOTO
Suárez (left) trying to save his Defence minister Gutierrez Mellado during the 1981 coup d' Etat.

The entry of Spain on the European Union in 1986 and the Barcelona Olympic Games in 1992 were rightly seen by Spaniards and by the whole world as the validation of the country and as the end to the vision of Spain as an exotic land with a penchant for bullfighting and civil warring.

Unfortunately, the Great Recession which began in 2008, combined with a series of corruption scandals which have grievously harmed citizens’ trust in institutions have once again put our future in jeopardy. The Catalonian plight is only the most acute expression of this newest self-confidence crisis.

(To be continued)

El final del principio: derrotas republicanas en Virginia y New Jersey

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”- Churchill en su discurso tras la batalla de El Alamein, 10 de diciembre de 1942

La victoria de Donald Trump hace un año generó entre los politólogos y sociólogos norteamericanos la sensación de que sus modelos electorales habían fallado y que Trump era una anomalía de algún tipo, un candidato que gozaba de cierto tipo de inmunidad política que no habían sido capaces de detectar.

Visto en retrospectiva, la realidad es más sencilla: desde hace ya casi sesenta años, los norteamericanos tienen una tendencia a cambiar de partido en las presidenciales tras ocho años de mandato. Votan a lo “nuevo”. Es así, nos guste o no. Ocurrió en 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, 2008 y 2016 (en varias ocasiones por los pelos, pero ocurrió). Sólo si un Presidente es sumamente incompetente (Carter, 1980) o sumamente popular (Reagan, 1988) esta tendencia se ha quebrado.

Si le añadimos a este hecho el que los demócratas cometieron (también en retrospectiva) el error de elegir a una candidata que llevaba un cuarto de siglo ante la mirada de la opinión pública y que bajo ningún concepto podía representar el “cambio” o la “renovación”, el escenario estaba listo para la elección incluso de un candidato tan manifiestamente incompetente como Trump (la ayuda de la dictadura rusa no se puede desdeñar tampoco, pero pasarán años hasta que los historiadores puedan verificar su impacto global, si es que alguna vez llegan a hacerlo).

Trump, como era de esperar dada su incompetencia y su grosería, ha resultado ser un presidente sumamente impopular. De hecho, es el Presidente con los peores datos de popularidad desde que hay registros. Y en ausencia de Hillary Clinton, todas las elecciones federales o estatales que se están celebrando a lo largo de este año en Estados Unidos son en mayor o menor medida referéndums sobre su persona.

Ayer tuvimos la muestra más relevante en lo que llevamos de 2017: hubo elecciones a gobernador en Nueva Jersey y Virginia. En ambas ganaron, con gran comodidad, los candidatos demócratas. Y lo que es quizá más relevante: en las elecciones al Congreso de Virginia, los demócratas casi con total seguridad lograron la mayoría absoluta de los escaños (tenían 34 sobre 100, y probablemente han ganado entre 50 y 53 escaños, a falta de los recuentos). Ese resultado ha sido totalmente inesperado, y revela la magnitud de la impopularidad del presidente.

El mapa (del New York Times) que muestra la variación en el voto entre las elecciones a gobernador de Virginia en 2013 y 2017 (en ambas ganaron los demócratas) desvela la clara polarización de Estados Unidos: cuanto más rojo, mayor mejora en el voto republicano respecto a cuatro años atrás; cuanto más azul, mayor mejora en el voto demócrata respecto a cuatro años atrás.

Superficialmente parecería que los republicanos habrían tenido una mejora, pero todas las áreas republicanas son zonas rurales, con pocos votos (véase en particular el Sudoeste de Virginia). En cambio, ese manchurrón al Norte del Estado son los suburbios de Washington, llenos de votantes, en los que Northam, el candidato demócrata, lo ha hecho bastante mejor que Clinton el año pasado.



¿Qué cabe deducir de todo ello? Que el año que viene, si la popularidad de Trump no mejora, las elecciones de medio mandato serán un via crucis para el Partido Republicano, particularmente en el Congreso, donde se renuevan los 435 escaños y donde docenas de congresistas republicanos representan el tipo de distrito suburbano en los que ayer arrasaron los demócratas de Virginia. (Por otra parte, todo indica que los congresistas rurales republicanos pueden dormir tranquilos).